According to the shipping consultancy Drewry, dry bulk shipping rates will keep recovering, since the demand will grow faster than fleet supply.
The recovery rates will become more prominent in 2019 and 2020, when the International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations will be implemented, said the London-based firm.
The report Dry Bulk Forecaster says that tone mile demand will grow around 3% annually over the next five years. At the same time, fleet supply is expected to grow just about 1% a year over the same period, due to a thin order book and high demolitions resulting from environmental regulations.
Demand is likely to improve with the strengthening of iron ore, coal, grain and minor bulk trades. The rise in infrastructure activities in China will support imports of iron ore and other minor bulk commodities.
India’s market will also play an important part in the future of dry bulk market, since iron ore exports stand at the forefront and this year is expected to reach 30 Mt, from 4Mt in 2015.
“We believe India’s return to the seaborne iron ore market will have wide implications for the dry bulk trade in the coming quarters,” commented Rahul Sharan, Drewry’s lead analyst for dry bulk shipping. “Iron ore exports from India to China that resumed at a fast pace, could reclaim a part of their lost share from Brazil and Australia.”
Drewry also said “Indian ports have been dredged further to accommodate Capsizes, but a large part of the ore will still be carried on smaller vessels, providing employment and higher utilization to smaller segments,” added Sharan.